Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 19.556482 21.255970 23.131430 25.373818 28.008224 31.039028 34.841143
2024-12-15 16.822528 19.017996 21.615857 24.982966 29.338205 34.948495 43.036391
2024-12-22 14.984527 17.420734 20.454132 24.638340 30.496934 38.844898 52.656634
2024-12-29 13.677802 16.244966 19.570902 24.397059 31.630542 42.942335 64.486453
2025-01-05 12.694949 15.338040 18.874930 24.231396 32.757772 47.314911 79.448692
2025-01-12 11.790687 14.425844 18.038057 23.690651 33.130039 50.484945 94.466290
2025-01-19 11.453887 14.240870 18.182160 24.624559 36.122414 59.712955 135.231325
2025-01-26 10.873459 13.655512 17.668049 24.415038 37.009148 64.978281 174.016943
2025-02-02 10.439228 13.240157 17.359643 24.487919 38.434087 72.254959 242.929682
2025-02-09 10.084862 12.910852 17.145612 24.681399 40.141535 81.362434 375.373547
2025-02-16 9.740541 12.569781 16.878051 24.734995 41.561155 90.728450 638.453106
2025-02-23 9.362510 12.152783 16.452435 24.439327 42.119507 97.802764 1139.734005
2025-03-02 9.065586 11.846624 16.191212 24.437643 43.434146 109.278358 4257.777973
2025-03-09 8.753641 11.499951 15.837412 24.215158 44.162248 119.414085 NaN
2025-03-16 8.460475 11.167055 15.483372 23.951798 44.735401 129.889704 NaN
2025-03-23 8.200846 10.873681 15.176584 23.749845 45.442567 142.527372 NaN
2025-03-30 7.969930 10.614425 14.911212 23.603979 46.288750 157.981900 NaN
2025-04-06 7.698636 10.278641 14.492516 23.091818 45.936835 165.175486 NaN
2025-04-13 7.656461 10.308621 14.717658 23.988373 50.227219 222.485052 NaN
2025-04-20 7.459263 10.076968 14.459850 23.788997 50.908988 249.577760 NaN
2025-04-27 7.311312 9.919749 14.327314 23.859266 52.570694 299.520404 NaN
2025-05-04 7.187114 9.796216 14.248470 24.044665 54.744467 378.682110 NaN
2025-05-11 7.052706 9.649980 14.118717 24.096056 56.460299 476.345303 NaN